As the 2022 season approaches, we as Jets fans start to wonder what players we can count on, which ones we hope will do well, and which ones we have little if any expectation for. I am rather alarmed to see that a lot of Jets fans place WR Corey Davis into the third category. They are already considering him a bust, some people are calling him the fifth WR on the roster behind Garrett Wilson, Elijah Moore, Denzel Mims, Braxton Berrios.
My argument is not to say that Corey Davis is a #1 wide receiver on the level of a DeAndre Hopkins or Mike Evans or Stefon Diggs. But I'm going to make my case why he is a legitimate starting WR in the NFL and I also want to examine the criticisms of Corey Davis and see if they hold water. So let's get into it.
Before coming to the Jets, Davis played four years with the Tennessee Titans and many of his key stats steadily increased during those years.
2017: 9 games, 34 catches on 65 targets, 375 yards, 0 TD
2018: 16 games, 65 catches on 12 targets, 891 yards, 4 TD
2019: 15 games, 43 catches on 69 targets, 601 yards, 2 TD
2020: 14 games, 65 catches on 92 targets, 984 yards, 5 TD
Oh and his quarterbacks were Marcus Mariota, Blaine Gabbert, Ryan Tannehill. These are not exactly Aaron Rodgers or Patrick Mahomes or Russell Wilson. Then with rookie Zach Wilson as his quarterback, Davis quickly became the most trusted target as the young Jets offense, who was also coached by a rookie OC in Mike LaFleur, was trying to find some direction. Here is the stat line on Corey Davis' 2021 season.
2021: 9 games, 34 catches on 59 targets, 492 yards, 4 TD
So Davis played essentially half a season. If we project the stats, he was on pace for right around 1,000 yards and 8-9 touchdowns before getting hurt and missing the second half of the season. Keep in mind Wilson played far less effectively in the first half of the season as opposed to the second half of the season, when he did not turn the football over during the last five games of the Jets' season. And also, for the critics complaining Davis never had a 1,000 yard season, 984 is pretty, pretty close and 891 isn't exactly terrible.
1. He's overpaid
GM Joe Douglas made his first notable splash of the 2020 offseason by inking Davis to a 3 year, $37.5 million contract, so it's averaging to $12.5 million per year. Let's look at some other wide receivers making a similar amount of money.
Kenny Golladay, $18 million
Christian Kirk, $17 million
Courtland Sutton, $15.2 million
Robby Anderson, $14.75 million
Michael Gallup, $11.5 million
Curtis Samuel, $11 million
Nelson Agholor, $11 million
Looking at this list of names, nobody would call them a top level, elite WR. Golladay was considered the biggest bust of last year's free agency crop and fans around the league were aghast when Jacksonville paid Kirk $17 million per year. And 90 percent of Jets fans cringe at the thought of Robby Anderson coming back if the Panthers are dealing with a case of contract remorse. So $13 million or so for Davis doesn't seem all that outrageous in this context. Plus, if he doesn't have a great 2022 season, the Jets could choose to cut him and the dead cap hit would be only $667,000.
2. He drops the ball/he has stone hands
We hear this complaint as much as any other one about Corey Davis. Perhaps the most damaging play Davis had last season was a pivotal fumble against New England and some Jets fans never got over it. But let's look a little deeper at the drops. Specifically, let's review how many drops Davis had in his first five seasons and also the drop percentage.
2017: 0 drops
2018: 6 drops, 5.4%
2019: 4 drops, 5.8%
2020: 3 drops, 3.3%
2021: 5 drops, 8.5%
Look at that drop percentage. In 2020, Davis recorded a 3.3 drop percentage and this past year with the Jets, it jumped to 8.5%. Are we to believe that Corey Davis turned 26 years old and suddenly forgot how to catch a football? Maybe the way Zach Wilson threw the football led to Davis dropping the ball more and maybe it also has something to do with the Jets receivers dropping more passes than any other team in the league in 2021.
And last year, the wide receivers who lead the NFL in dropped passes? Keenan Allen and Jamarr Chase, with 9 apiece. I doubt fans of the Chargers and Bengals first think of dropped passes with these two receivers.
3. He gets hurt too much!
Let's look at the injuries Davis has had.
2017: Hamstring, missed 5 games
2018: No injuries
2019: Hip, missed 1 game. Concussion, returned for the next game
2020: Thigh strain, missed 2 games
So Davis missed 8 games in 4 years, or an average of 2 per year. Then he goes to the Jets and on our cursed Field Turf in Met Life Stadium, it didn't go so well.
2021: Hip, missed 2 games. Groin, needed surgery, placed on IR in December, missed last 6 games
There's a good chance the hip issue led to the groin issue as these are core muscles. And despite Davis coming back after two games, he was not quite the same player after and eventually, his season was shut down. This was one of the many free agents brought in who just could not get a good injury break. See Carl Lawson, see Vinny Curry, see LaMarcus Joyner, etc.
Conclusion
Jets fans, this is no scrub. This is a 6'3 209 pound wide receiver who runs routes well, and was steadily getting better and better. We never got to see how good because when he was in the lineup, Mike LaFleur, Zach Wilson, and the offensive line were not doing their jobs as well as they would in the second half of the season.
Davis may be similar to Wayne Chrebet or Eric Decker in that he needs a very good WR on the other side of him to be at his best, like had with AJ Brown in his last year in Tennessee. Now we've added Garrett Wilson, who had the potential to be a top level WR for Zach Wilson. And we still are yet to see the ceiling of Elijah Moore. One of the best things that can happen to Corey Davis this year is Elijah Moore to stay healthy, allowing him to ascend to a possible top level wide receiver that he showed glimpses of being in 2021.
So this season, let's see Davis play inside a little more where he can use his size to block in the run game, take advantage of smaller corners, and get some yards after the catch. The Cowboys do this with CeeDee Lamb, the Bucs do it with Chris Godwin.
And let's not forget how the improved running game can make life easier for the passing game. With a new talent like Breece Hall running alongside Michael Carter, it can open up more opportunities for Davis off play action plays.
While we're excited about getting a new starting WR in the draft and maybe another via trade or free agency, let us not forget the young veteran the Jets already have who can prove to be a big piece in making this offense thrive.
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