Olympic hockey predictions

Note: Upon learning the three group winners are the top 3 seeds, I went back and edited my final standings and subsequent tournament picks.

I was pleased to hear the NHL will not participate in the Winter Olympics in 2018. I would prefer amateurs play in the Olympics while the NHL brings back the World Cup. So this will be the last time we see NHL players play for the Olympic gold medal till at least 2020. Here's what I see happening.

There are 3 groups, A, B, and C, with four teams in each. In the preliminary round, a team plays a round-robin against the other teams in their group. A team gets three points for a regulation win, two for an overtime win, one for an overtime loss, and none for a regulation loss. Here's the order of finish I predict for the groups.

Group A: USA, Russia, Slovakia, Slovenia
Group B: Canada, Finland, Norway, Austria
Group C: Sweden, Czech Republic, Latvia, Switzerland

A few notes: I think the USA and Russia will finish maybe a point apart, their game could come down to overtime, which could make the difference in who wins that group. I love how deep the US is in goal with Quick, Miller, and Howard. The defense appears very young, I'm not sure about the Cam Fowler's and John Carlson's in these games. But Slovakia with Zdeno Chara and Marian Hossa will give a lot of teams trouble.

Canada is scary good on offense. John Tavares is playing on the fourth line and Marty St. Louis may be used in a checking role. My only question is can Carey Price and Roberto Luongo carry the load in goal? Against elite teams like the US, Sweden, and Russia, I'm not too sure. I also have a soft spot for Norway, since the Rangers' Mats Zuccarello is their only NHL player. I like Finland a lot with Tuukka Rask in goal; I think he's going to carry their team a long way. Plus, that team has medaled in the last two Olympics.

I expect Sweden to storm through their group. Switzerland has made some Cinderella runs the last two Olympics, I think they can make a decent one since they're in a weak group. I really have little faith in the Czech Republic with Ondrej Pavelec, Jaromir Jagr, and Marek Zidlicky. And how is Ted Nolan, a Canadian, allowed to coach Latvia?

After each team plays three round robin games, the four teams with the most points get byes to the semi-finals. Meanwhile, the 5th seed plays the 12th, the 6th plays the 11th, and so on. If two teams are tied with the same number of points, the first two tiebreakers are rank in their group and goal differential.

Predicted order of finish:
1. Sweden
2. Canada
3. USA
4. Finland
5. Russia
6. Switzerland
7. Slovakia
8. Czech Republic
9. Norway
10. Latvia
11. Austria
12. Slovenia

First round picks:
Russia over Slovenia
Switzerland over Austria
Slovakia over Latvia
Czech Republic over Norway

Quarterfinal picks:
Sweden over Czech Republic
Canada over Slovakia
USA over Switzerland
Russia over Finland

Semifinal picks:
Russia over Sweden
Canada over USA

Bronze medal:
USA over Sweden

Gold medal:
Canada over Russia