Thursday, March 31, 2011

Mets season preview-Part 2

Catchers
I like that Josh Thole, a solid left-handed contact hitter, will get the bulk of the playing time. Don't know much about his defense though. I liked Ronny Paulino as this year's Henry Blanco, a right-handed platoon, except this guy seems to always have some kind of issue. Whether it's his visa keeping him out of Florida or stomach pains or blood issues. I'm sure he'll get in there eventually.

Infielders
Ike Davis is a young first baseman and has the most raw power of anyone on the team. He plays excellent defense too, the one thing I need to see from him is at least a .265 average. He struck out way too many times last season and that can't keep going on.
After a 4-way battle that kept dragging on, Rule 5 acquisition Brad Eamus is the starting second baseman over Justin Turner, Luis Hernandez, and thankfully, Luis Castillo. Like Thole, Eamus is a patient hitter who focuses on getting on-base. I like the change in philosophy. Because there have been too many times over the last few years I would see these all-or-nothing strikeout-prone free swingers in the Met lineup. Fernando Tatis, Damion Easley, Ramon Castro, and Jeff Francoeur all come to mind.
Jose Reyes is one of my favorite Mets, but I am all but resigned that this will be his last season in Flushing. His contract expires this year and he will reportedly seek Carl Crawford-type money, around $100 million. The Mets simply cannot afford that kind of contract.
David Wright, the face of the franchise. I think we know what this guy provides. Solid, yet streaky offense, and mediocre defense. Make him foul a few pitches off, then throw an outside slider. Works every time.

Outfielders
Very early in spring training, Carlos Beltran volunteered to move to right field from center. That should have been a warning sign that his surgically-"repaired" knees were not right. He only played in two major league spring training games and he certainly isn't well enough to play every day. But this is his contract year, so he has to be motivated for one big season. He can still mash the ball, the question is can his legs hold up?
As the news came early this week that Beltran would be ready for Opening Day, the same day, Jason Bay felt a tweak in his ribcage and has been put on the DL. After a terrible first half of 2010 and a concussion terminating his season early, I really believed Bay needed a fast start to get the fans behind him. With this injury, this could derail his progress.
Angel Pagan emerged as a true bright spot last season. He never got injured and showed almost no signs of the fundamental errors that seemed to plague his career for ages. His speed and knack for key hits make him an ideal center fielder for this team. I do question Collins hitting him fifth, he should bat second, Bay or no Bay.

Bench
Two years ago, Mets fans were insisting Daniel Murphy had to start. And he does possess a solid major-league bat. The problem is he simply cannot play defense. His best positions are first and third base and those will be occupied for at least five years. I like him as a lefty bat off the bench. How sad it is it that in 2009, his 12 home runs led the Mets?
Chin-Lung Hu is not much more than a defensive replacement. Something tells me we will see more of him starting than we will want to. That could come from Eamus not playing well or Reyes getting traded/injured.
I was thrilled when Alderson signed Scott Hairston as a free agent. And he has batted .345 with five home runs in the spring. I think he will emerge as a pretty key part of this team.
How many times did Mets fans see Willie Harris kill them, whether it was a stolen base or more likely, a huge catch. And Omar Minaya constantly refused to sign him. Looking at his spring stats, the three homers aside, I like that he took 12 walks and has an OBP of almost .400.
Lucas Duda should be starting the second and third games in Miami. He is likely only around until Bay returns. He has a lot of raw power, but it seemingly took him 25 AB's to get his first base hit last season. I see him as a Wily Mo Pena or Craig Brazell, a career Triple-A slugger who likely will not hit well enough against major-league hurlers.

Philadelphia has a lot of injury issues right now with Brown, Utley, and Lidge all out. And Rollins and Ibanez are quickly aging. But they still boast four aces. And everyone seems to be licking Atlanta's boots. Let them. I absolutely don't see the Mets making the playoffs but I can see them hanging in the race for the first half like they did last year. But even if that happens, there is this black cloud hanging, that Alderson could trade Reyes if he concludes he won't be able to re-sign the team's spark, soul, and energy. Since there are so many question marks, and only so many can go the right way, I will say the Mets win 79 games and finish 4th in the NL East.

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